How d u think Chinese wud replace English as lengua franca?

China   Thu Jul 23, 2009 1:54 pm GMT
>> Papua New Guinea?.....hmmmm......what if the Chinese decied to go a step further and fancied the idea of taking Oz, too, while they're on a roll? <<

Have you heard of a little thing called nuclear weapons?
China   Thu Jul 23, 2009 2:05 pm GMT
I think it's important to specify timeframe though. If you think that Chinese will become the lingua franca or the world, *when* do you think that would happen? 2012? 2060? 2080? 2200? If it's too far out there, it's completely guesswork. What if Poland becomes the next world power, 60 years from now, for instance? What if North Korea by accident destroys China? What if Europe, the Commonwealth, and the Americas band together to keep China in check?
LastHumanOnEarth   Thu Jul 23, 2009 2:34 pm GMT
What if it's the end of the world tomorrow?
expansionist   Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:23 pm GMT
<<Have you heard of a little thing called nuclear weapons? >>

Before China could expand seriously, they'd need a solution to the nuclear weapons "problem". Possibilities:

1) Impenetrable defensive missile shield, 100% impervious to anything the West could throw at it.

2) Weaken the West so much using economic warfare so we couldn't affort to maintain our nukes. There's already some suggection that the US nuclear arsenal is mostly or completely non-functional.

3) Persuade the West into unilateral nuclear disarmament, Alternately, persuade the Westerners that they have no rightful place on Earth, perhaps by fostering all-encompassing political correctness. Maybe the West could be conned into welcoming its own destruction?

4) Develop some new (nanotechnology-based?) weaponry or biological weapons that would silently wipe out the non-Chinese population before anybody could realize what was happening.
Vinlander   Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:11 pm GMT
I'm sorry judging by this thread I'd have to assume you guys really don't have a clue, even the ones making good points miss out on some key facts.

The century will be the Asian century. Asia will not dominate the world. Asia will become the world as we know it.

keeping it simple there are five main regions of the world, Northern America(Can&US) latin america, Europe, Africa, and Asia( India, middle east, China, Indonesia, and most of russia) .


Latin america will speak Spanish,portugese, if they can get economic independence from the states



USA will be english with a significant Spanish influence. Canada will be english with a large mandarin influnece as it is now in Vancouver)



Africa won't be worth talking about for atleast 50 years so it's very hard to predict. They may speak English, Spanish, Portugues, french, arabic, Swahili or mandarin, as they all have potential, there, and remember african's are natural polygots, even if they know english or french, they often know there own african tongues as well.


Europe is complicated America is the real reason english is so prevalent there not the u.k. Currently there learning english however that may change. They will never learn a asia lang, but russian, french, spanish, and german may all have potential.
Russia if it can get it's economy together may start having a influence on eastern europe as i'd imagine be easier to learn for a polish slavic person than say English.
Spanish if latin america get's going will probally be learnt by italians and the french who aren't that fond of english for a list of reasons
German and french as well as italian, aren't going anywhere and who knows what they could do. as they all have over 60 million speakers each.


Asia by about 2060 will be the workhorse of the globe. Simply put just because they have 65 percent of the worlds population. China and india will be the major players. If india remains english they will have about have the world english speakers and do at this moment, however that could easily change as many Bollywood(largest film industry) movies are in hindi.
Beside india there are 200 million urdu(very close to hindi as a lang) speakers as well. So if they do use it all of south west asia, will speak hindi.
The north of Asia if Russia gets in gear will be dominated in russian and will be a similiar to what the value of japanese is now.


This leaves just east asia. Which includes japan indonesia, south korea vietnam, thailand to name a few. If China is on the path it is on now, which means turning the country into one Giant Honk Kong they'll be a major player in this region, of over 1.7 billion people, which will in turn making this 1/4 of the world's population, relevant everywhere. Not everyone will learn mandarin, however anyone wanting to bussiness with the Eastern Quater will have to know mandarin.

As far as the writing system computers will definitly have a massive influence. The system what ever it is will not be impossible. Atleast not for east Asian's. As far as how hard it is, that won't matter people don't learn langs because there easy they learn them because there spoken.

Although not all of what i said is perfect, it's more in the direction you guys should be thinking. less in the english owning all. Even if mandarin is only is east asia there will be chinese imigrants everwhere like there is now and lots of Asian wanna be people learning it for bussiness or media. Just think of all the anime freaks you know. Furthermore place like Africa don't care if they know english or chinese it's whatever gets them ahead.
China   Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:38 pm GMT
>> sian wanna be people learning it for bussiness or media. Just think of all the anime freaks you know <<

They learn Japanese...

>> . Not everyone will learn mandarin, however anyone wanting to bussiness with the Eastern Quater will have to know mandarin <<

Yes, International Businessmen will have to learn Mandarin. But they make up such a small percentage of people...I know I'm never going into Int'l business in Asia, and neither are most people that I know.
China   Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:40 pm GMT
I think a more interesting question is what will happen to Hong Kong and Macau in 40 years from now when they are completely integrated into Communist China. Will the people revolt, after living in a free democracy so long?
Jasper   Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:43 pm GMT
VINLANDER: "As far as the writing system computers will definitly have a massive influence. The system what ever it is will not be impossible. Atleast not for east Asian's. As far as how hard it is, that won't matter people don't learn langs because there easy they learn them because there spoken."

I don't know about this, Vinlander. From a linguistic standpoint, Mandarin Chinese is simply too difficult for most of us Westerners to learn because it's tonal. Why is this a problem? We can't hear all the tones!! Do you understand how difficult a barrier this is for us? It's like asking a handicapped person in a wheelchair to get up and walk.

I worked with a Chinese national—a real lady—for several years. I was proud of the fact that I could hear three tones, but unfortunately, I simply could not hear the fourth.

Another issue to keep in mind is that Chinese can only be written about 20 or 30 words per minute on a computer. This will drastically slow down business.
Fact   Thu Jul 23, 2009 6:27 pm GMT
<<Another issue to keep in mind is that Chinese can only be written about 20 or 30 words per minute on a computer.>>

Where did you get the idea that it is slow to type Chinese on the computer?

You need 8 keys to type the word 'computer' but only 3 keys to type the corresponding word in Chinese, '电脑'.
China   Thu Jul 23, 2009 6:38 pm GMT
Why not simply hire an interpreter? It would save a lot of effort. And they'd be more likely to translate things correctly--which is very important for business. Most people that I know that have taken Chinese for 4 years in high school can neither hold a fluent conversation, nor read even the simplest of articles. I doubt that this will change in the future. And then they quickly forget what they learned in their classes, because it's not possible to practice Chinese in North America besides Vancouver. And most people in Vancouver speak English quite well.
Vinlander   Thu Jul 23, 2009 7:50 pm GMT
China Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:40 pm GMT
I think a more interesting question is what will happen to Hong Kong and Macau in 40 years from now when they are completely integrated into Communist China. Will the people revolt, after living in a free democracy so long?

Not that I'm insider in the PRC but i'm pretty sure HK is what China will be, a big country with a goverment that is run more like a corporation there will be no democracy however it will probally be more efficient than the current PRC

Fact Thu Jul 23, 2009 6:27 pm GMT
<<Another issue to keep in mind is that Chinese can only be written about 20 or 30 words per minute on a computer.>>

Where did you get the idea that it is slow to type Chinese on the computer?

You need 8 keys to type the word 'computer' but only 3 keys to type the corresponding word in Chinese, '电脑'.

Much agreed. The writing system isn't that hard, it's just not a quick fix like our system. The benifit to mandarin is the lack of grammar is so bloody simple comepared say Russian or German.
Furthermore your missing some key points. Mandarin is not a language adults can learn. Learning tones is something you need a childs ear to get, and if you think of how children aquire reading skills it's far more on par with the way you learn to read chinese, no matter what age you star it will take abolut 15 years to reach fluency. No big deal if your kids enrolled early.

As far where chinese will be spoken, I think your underestimating the language when compared to say a language like Japanese. The difference are there will be atleast five times more native speakers, Chinatown's(Cities) in every corner of the globe. Also it's more likely the media will be far more diverse than japan, just think if Japan started releasing anime in Mandarin. Furthermore it's far easier to learn mandarin compared to Japanese.
Mandarin won't be for everyone but i'd assume there be atleast 100 million speakers of it across the americas and europe, not a crazy amount but I'd think will be an important language.
K. T.   Thu Jul 23, 2009 8:10 pm GMT
"I worked with a Chinese national—a real lady—for several years. I was proud of the fact that I could hear three tones, but unfortunately, I simply could not hear the fourth."

I think you could, with practice, learn this. There is a linguist and author who also had a terrible time with one tone. It was just unnatural for her. She was able to make it when she had to get something to eat in a rural part of China.
China   Thu Jul 23, 2009 8:13 pm GMT
It will certainly be an important language, but not a global lingua franca like English is today, except perhaps in Asia. But I suppose that it could be considered a "lingua franca" if it takes off in Asia, because a lingua franca needn't be global. Latin and French were not global languages in their times but were still considered to be lingua francas.
YOU"RE FORGETTING T   Thu Jul 23, 2009 8:48 pm GMT
Uh, HELLO EVERYONE! Are you stupid?

In the next 50 years there will almost CERTAINLY be 100% perfect electronic translators. This will eliminate the need to know ANY language beside one's native language. Language learning is set to DECREASE not increase.
K. T.   Thu Jul 23, 2009 9:04 pm GMT
Uh, they've been working on Japanese translators since at least 1945 and they still haven't gotten it right. There are thousands of languages in the world.

Your optimism is great though, I must say.