English in Decline as a First Language

Korean   Tue Dec 02, 2008 5:00 am GMT
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/02/0226_040226_language.html


It may be time to brush up on your Mandarin.

According to one new study, the percentage of the global population that grew up speaking English as its first language is declining. In addition, an increasing number of people now speak more than one language.

In the future, English is likely to be one of those languages, but the Mandarin form of Chinese will probably be the next must-learn language, especially in Asia.

"The status of English as a global language may peak soon," said David Graddol, managing director of the English Company in Milton Keynes, England, and the author of a new study on the future of language.

However, a separate study suggests that English's dominance in the scientific arena will continue to expand. While this trend has encouraged international collaboration, researchers warn it could also divide the scientific world into haves and have-nots, determining who can, for example, publish in international journals.

Both studies are published—in English—in this week's issue of the journal Science.

No World Language

Graddol argues that the world's language system is at a crossroads, and a new linguistic order is about to emerge. The transformation is partly due to demographics. The world's population rose rapidly during the 20th century, but the major increase took place in less developed countries.

Long gone is the idea, first suggested in the 19th century, that the entire world will one day speak English as a "world language." In fact, the relative decline of English is continuing. In the mid-20th century, nearly 9 percent of the world's population grew up speaking English as their first language. In 2050, the number is expected to be 5 percent.

"Population growth amongst speakers of languages other than English has been greater," Graddol said. But he adds that English is declining less rapidly than some other languages, like Italian.

Today, Mandarin Chinese is well established as the world's largest language in terms of native speakers.

The next four major languages—English, Spanish, Hindi/Urdu, and Arabic—are likely to be equally ranked by 2050, with Arabic rising as English declines.

But it is the languages of the rank just below—such as Bengali, Tamil, and Malay—that are now growing the fastest.

Meanwhile, the world continues to rapidly lose older, rural languages. There are roughly 6,000 languages existing in the world today. Yet 90 percent of these may be doomed to extinction, with much of this loss happening in the coming century. One language may be lost every day, Graddol says.

"Languages spoken only in small, traditional, rural communities are being lost as the communities themselves are transformed and connected closely to the wider society," Graddol said. "Linguistic diversity is being lost at a faster rate than biodiversity."

Science's Lingua Franca

While many rural languages are going extinct, new urban hybrid languages may help to maintain global diversity. Hundreds of new forms of English have already been spawned around the world.

Some traditional languages are losing their practical use as much communication—economic, cultural, and political—becomes international. "Swedish, like many European languages, is now more a local language of solidarity than one for science, university education, or European communication," Graddol writes.

In an accompanying article, Scott Montgomery—a Seattle-based geologist and author of The Chicago Guide to Communicating Science,—shows that English has established itself as the preferred world language for science.

"Because of its scale and dynamism, science has become the most active and dynamic creator of new language in the world today. And most of this creation is occurring in English, the lingua franca of scientific effort," Montgomery said.

Montgomery believes the future will almost certainly see a continued expansion of English use in science, especially in international settings, though not to the final exclusion of other tongues. Already, more than 90 percent of journal literature in some scientific fields is printed in English.

"More and more scientists who are non-native speakers of English will need to become multilingual," Montgomery said. "[This constitutes] an educational burden in some sense, but one that has much historical precedent in the cases of ancient Greek, medieval Latin, and medieval Arabic."

Next Must-Learn Language

Graddol, meanwhile, predicts that English will play a crucial role in shaping the new linguistic order. But, he says, its major impact will be in creating new generations of bilingual and multilingual speakers around the world.

"English is becoming a major mechanism for social and economic exclusion and creating new divides," he said. "In many parts of the world, English is now regarded as a basic skill, like computer skills, which children learn at an early age so they can study through English later."

Businesses whose employees are not multilingual will find themselves at a disadvantage, Graddol says. In fact, employers in parts of Asia are already looking beyond English. In the next decade, the new must-learn language is likely to be Mandarin.

"Chinese is demographically huge, but when the Chinese economy has overtaken that of the United States, no one will be able to ignore its global power," Graddol said. "We know from the past that great languages of science can be overtaken. Latin was preeminent when modern science began in the 17th century."

In the future, the study predicts, most people will speak more than one language and will switch between languages for routine tasks. Monolingual English speakers may find it difficult to fully participate in a multilingual society.

"Native English speakers—particularly monolingual ones—have been too complacent about the status of their language and the lack of need to learn other languages," Graddol said.
J.C.   Tue Dec 02, 2008 5:54 am GMT
Thanks for the interesting article. This motivates me to work more on my Mandarin, specially because I'm in Asia and can't ignore China.

Cheers!!
Guest   Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:09 am GMT
"English, Spanish, Hindi/Urdu, and Arabic—are likely to be equally ranked by 2050, with Arabic rising as English declines.

But it is the languages of the rank just below—such as Bengali, Tamil, and Malay—that are now growing the fastest."



Hmmmm....English, Spanish, Hindi, Urdu, Arabic, Chinese, Bengali, Tamil and Malay are the languages of the future?


It is interesting that French and German are not in the top ten languages of this century according to this report!
Visitor   Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:19 am GMT
<< But it is the languages of the rank just below—such as Bengali, Tamil, and Malay—that are now growing the fastest."



Hmmmm....English, Spanish, Hindi, Urdu, Arabic, Chinese, Bengali, Tamil and Malay are the languages of the future?


It is interesting that French and German are not in the top ten languages of this century according to this report!>>

The one who predicted that these languages except English will be more important than French is STUPID because all I know is Hottentot, Telugu, Miao, and Hiri Motu will become more important than Spanish in 2050.
Guest   Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:20 am GMT
Why should they be?
David Graddol's fan   Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:04 pm GMT
To French Visitor:

Which is the expert, mon ami? A fanatic French or David Graddol, a British expert in languages and at the same time neutral?


It is obvious that English, Mandarin, Spanish, Arabic and Hindi are more important than French.

Anyway, I didn't know that Urdu, Bengali, Tamil and Malay too. In his opinion, the free fall of French language will be amazing!


Hmmmm....it doesn't matter, mon ami. If you study English, Spanish, Mandarin and Arabic you can travel a lot and understand people around the World and half of French residents:)
Caspian   Thu Dec 04, 2008 10:08 pm GMT
Are Arabic and Hindi more important than French?

A lot of Arabic speakers know French - Look at the Algerians.

A lot of Hindi speakers know English.

Nobody is pressurizing us to learn Arabic or Hindi here in England - but where I go to school, it's compulsory to learn French for 2 years.
Guest   Fri Dec 05, 2008 1:05 am GMT
Yes. The educative system is from 1950, when French WAS important.

It is easier not to change the foreign language. But if there were at school 6-8 languages to choose (French, Spanish, Chinese, Arabic, German, Russian, Italian, Japanese) would be French the most interesting language to study?

I don't think so.
Reg   Fri Dec 05, 2008 2:57 am GMT
What about Hindii
Visitor   Fri Dec 05, 2008 12:00 pm GMT
Yes. The educative system is from 1950, when French WAS important.

It is easier not to change the foreign language. But if there were at school 6-8 languages to choose (French, Spanish, Chinese, Arabic, German, Russian, Italian, Japanese) would be Spanish the most interesting language to study?

the hell with that language.
George Weber's Fan   Fri Dec 05, 2008 12:07 pm GMT
To Hispanic David Graddol's fan:

Which is not the expert, mmi amigo? A fanatic hispanic or David Graddol, a British expert in languages and at the same time neutral?


It is obvious that English, French, Russian, German, and Italian are more important than Spanish.

Anyway, I didn't know that Hottentot, Telugu, Miao, and Hiri-Motu too. in other's opinion, the DISINTIGRATION and FRAGMENTATION of THthe Spanish language will be spectular!


Hmmmm....it doesn't matter, mi amigo. If you study English, French, Russian, Gemran, and Italian. You will learn a lot a lot and understand people around the World and all of Hispanic residents:)
Guest   Fri Dec 05, 2008 3:29 pm GMT
I usually sell at Ebay to French people and I always use English to them despite I can also speak French, and at many times they respond in Spanish. They don't even dare to use French because it is insignificant.
Saul Wall   Tue Dec 09, 2008 9:20 pm GMT
It is English's prominence as a second language which is ensuring it's growth. Non-native English speakers are more and more regularly communicating in English. There is no language which is used as the common working language for more fields of human endeavor from business, science, technology, air traffic control etc. The cultural body of works from literature to pop culture is vast and pervasive. There are more satellite TV channels in English than any other language (including more and more free-to-air channels) and even on a number of people per channel basis English is more extensive.

English's geographical extent is even greater than Spanish which is limited to mostly one continent plus a couple bits of a couple others.

Even assuming that all speakers of Mandarin can understand each other (this is not the case for <a href="http://memriarabliterature.blogspot.com/2007/12/arabic-speakers-dying-breed-in-arab.html">Arabic</a> as the dialects of different regions can be very different) it is a language of a large number of people in a small part of the planet - a region with a growing but over hyped economy and a political system which are both in desperate need of reform. Mandarin, Hindi and Arabic are very different languages from each other and from English and Spanish which at least share some vocabulary, grammar and most alphabetic symbols.

English is also becoming the language of political dissidence as people who oppose their regimes actions try to gain a wider audience.

The very fact that people living in the English speaking world have a difficult time deciding on a potential second language and a hard time finding the motivation to learn it illustrates the lack of another language of equal prominence as a global language.

Except for a possible merger of English and Spanish, the English language is the world language though it will soon go through an extended phase of being spoken mainly as a second language.
Niko   Tue Dec 09, 2008 10:06 pm GMT
Saul Wall, I agree. The reason English has been so prominent in the world because in general, it's a pretty easy language to pick up if one tries hard enough. The different dialects (British, Canadian, Southern USA, etc.) certainly differ from one another but are not enough to not allow any English to understand the main idea.

Mandarin Chinese can certainly be understood as a whole to Mandarin speakers, but the writing system can be different and difficult enough to cause problems. For instance, the mainland uses simplified characters while Taiwan and Hong Kong still use traditional ones.

I think English will continue growing (and not declining) because of its wide appeal: fairly easy words to pronounce, simple alphabet and little difference between dialects.
Visitor   Fri Dec 12, 2008 1:34 pm GMT
I usually sell at Ebay to Hispanic people and I always use French to them despite I can also speak Spanish, and at many times they respond in French. They don't even dare to use Spanish because it is insignificant.