http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/02/0226_040226_language.html
Read the article and go on!
Read the article and go on!
Do you want to comment this!?!
Une chose est sure : le poids de l'anglais est directement déterminé par celui des Etats-Unis. Les EU pesaient 50 % de la richesse mondiale vers 1945, contre 20 % aujourd'hui. L'Union européenne est la première puissance commerciale mondiale et le restera encore longtemps. Surtout si on prend en compte les candidats et futurs candidats à l'adhésion à l'UE. La Chine et l'Inde vont reprendre la place traditionnelle qu'elles occupaient avant la révolution industrielle. Dans ces conditions, la place de l'anglais peut être modifiée; ça dépendra surtout des relations politiques entre la Chine et les Etats-Unis.
Une autre chose est moins sure : quid de l'expansion de l'hispanophonie états-unienne dans les prochaines décennies ?
Une autre chose est moins sure : quid de l'expansion de l'hispanophonie états-unienne dans les prochaines décennies ?
I think it was to be expected...
For instance,if you take Africa.You see that the people there (the english speakers) want to go back to their roots.
For instance,if you take Africa.You see that the people there (the english speakers) want to go back to their roots.
What Greg said according to "Babelfish" : (It sucks,but it's still the best on the web)
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A thing is sour: the weight of English is directly determined by that of the United States. HAVE 50 % of the world richness weighed about 1945, against 20 % today. The European Union is the first world commercial power and will remain it still a long time. Especially if one takes into account the candidates and future candidates with adhesion with the EU. China and India will take again the traditional place which they occupied before the industrial revolution. Under these conditions, the place of English can be modified; that will depend especially on the political relations between China and the United States. Another thing is less sour: quid of the expansion of the hispanic in the USA in the next decades?
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A thing is sour: the weight of English is directly determined by that of the United States. HAVE 50 % of the world richness weighed about 1945, against 20 % today. The European Union is the first world commercial power and will remain it still a long time. Especially if one takes into account the candidates and future candidates with adhesion with the EU. China and India will take again the traditional place which they occupied before the industrial revolution. Under these conditions, the place of English can be modified; that will depend especially on the political relations between China and the United States. Another thing is less sour: quid of the expansion of the hispanic in the USA in the next decades?
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Money and power doesn't automatically lead to a popular language. E.g. Japan or Russia. Yes, the US has pushed English forward since WWII, but it's only been able to do that because of the foundations laid on every continent be the British Empire. As I've mentioned before if only Britain and the US spoke English, English would probably be on a parr with German.
I think the key for a language to be at that level as English now are staying at is, there must be a lot of people who speak the language before it has become a hit, there must be a good trade in those areas who speake the language, there must also be good possibilities for technical development. I think Chaina and Asia have a good possibilities to take over that role the English language has today.
The problem with Mandarin is similar to that with Japanese: while it may have a large (extreme large in the case of Mandarin) native-speaking population, that native-speaking population is rather restricted geographically (unlike, say, English and to a lesser extent Spanish), and furthermore it does not have that significant of a population which speaks it as a *second* language, excepting speakers of other Chinese languages. Hence, this very greatly restricts the potential of its use as a lingua franca on a global scale, as can be seen from the case of Japanese, even though it is already used as a lingua franca within China itself.
Furthermore, the question is what would actually get people who already speak English as a second or native language to actually bother to learn Chinese and to use it as a lingua franca *instead* of English. To actually dislodge English would probably require the political and economic power of the US, and probably also UK, to be very severely damaged, as China having more economic power on paper would not be enough to actually get people to actually *switch* to Mandarin as a lingua franca. Such would probably require things on the order of severe economic depression or open civil war in the US, over an extended period of time, or the US very badly losing a war with China, and also the UK somehow exiting the EU, most likely due to internal isolationalism and europhobia, or like. Of course, the likelihood of these sorts of things happening in the cases of the US and UK are low at this point, with probably the most likely being the UK deciding to leave the EU, which alone would not dislodge English's position globally.
Furthermore, the question is what would actually get people who already speak English as a second or native language to actually bother to learn Chinese and to use it as a lingua franca *instead* of English. To actually dislodge English would probably require the political and economic power of the US, and probably also UK, to be very severely damaged, as China having more economic power on paper would not be enough to actually get people to actually *switch* to Mandarin as a lingua franca. Such would probably require things on the order of severe economic depression or open civil war in the US, over an extended period of time, or the US very badly losing a war with China, and also the UK somehow exiting the EU, most likely due to internal isolationalism and europhobia, or like. Of course, the likelihood of these sorts of things happening in the cases of the US and UK are low at this point, with probably the most likely being the UK deciding to leave the EU, which alone would not dislodge English's position globally.
We've been discussing this at lingcafe, if anyone's interested in reading my thoughts on the topic here:
http://14.freebb.com/viewtopic.php?t=201&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15&freebb=antimoonbis
http://14.freebb.com/viewtopic.php?t=201&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15&freebb=antimoonbis
I'm pretty convinced it's going to be some time before any other language replaces English at the global level. I'm not at all convinced it will be Chinese. Numbers alone count for nothing.
About what Greg said of the popularity of Spanish in the U.S, it has downplayed Englished role as a must learn language. In many places,(San Fransisco, New York City, Miami) you can get by in many with only Spanish(registration for school will be don in spanish, reg. for social security, products have spanish labels), which somewhat dowenplays English role as must learn language.