French VS German, which is the winner of European Union?

greg   Wed Jul 19, 2006 10:50 pm GMT
En matière d'exportations, les États-Unis sont un nain¹ comparé à l'Union européenne et à l'Allemagne en particulier. Si la croissance est soutenue aux États-Unis, c'est parce que la demande intérieure est (artificiellement) forte —> les ÉU vivent ***À CRÉDIT***.

¹La seule zone euro exporte 2 ½ fois plus que les ÉU. À elle seule l'Allemagne fait 2/3 des exportations états-uniennes. En se limitant aux seules marchandises, l'UE exporte 4 fois plus que les ÉU.
LAA   Wed Jul 19, 2006 10:59 pm GMT
Greg, I didn't really understand what you said, as usual, but yes, our domestic demand is higher, which is a good thing, because strong domestic demand is directly linked to high rates of employment and consumer confidence.

Imports aren't bad. They are a sign of health. A trade surplus is not any worse than a trade deficit. If you don't believe me, read more on economics. I don't mean that in an insulting way either.

Japan, which has been stricken with economic stagnation and inflation since the financial bubble fallout in the early '90s, has had huge trade surpluses. So what does that prove?

The U.S., had some of its largest trade surpluses during the Great Depression. So what does that prove?

Trade deficits/surpluses are mainly the result of the level of savings and investment in a given economy. The U.S. has a trade deficit, also known as a current account deficit, because it has a surplus of investment over savings. Stagnant economies in Europe and Japan have an excess of savings, due to lack of domestic investment opportunites because of weak economic growth. So, they take their excess savings and invest it the U.S. market, which depresses U.S. interest rates, which then reduces the return on saving for U.S. investors, and reduces the cost of investment, thereby leading to a higher rate of investment in the U.S.

I would much rather be in the American position than that of Europe or Japan.

Nations like Germany have such a chronically large trade surplus because they have such weak domestic demand, that there is no one to buy import goods. That is not a sign of a healthy economy.