An interesting assessment

Guest   Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:25 am GMT
The gives us good look at what languages will stand really stand out in the near future. It gives good reason for the 3 languages (besides English) that is emphasizes. From a locked thread:

Today I want to give you some information about the world of languages and the development of second language learning. There is an interesting study from David Graddol, ‘English Next’ (British Council, 2006) which gives a good analysis of the future of languages. I’ll try to summarize some of the findings here below.

Economic, demographic and cultural changes have driven the development of foreign language education, not only English as the world’s primary language for international communication, but also other growing languages such as Spanish, Arabic or Mandarin and spreading of languages as Japanese, French and German. The Internet has made the world smaller, technology enabling new patterns of communication in ways which also have implications for language learning.

The massive increase in the number of people learning English is likely to reach a peak of around 2 billion in the next 10–15 years, with a significant increase coming from Chinese students, estimated now at around 250 million English learners, increasing of about 20 million per year.

Also other languages, including lesser-used languages, are now proliferating, and Mandarin and Spanish are challenging English in some territories for educational resources and policy attention.

The attractiveness of Mandarin to learners across the world is growing, and language schools in many countries are expanding their provision to include it. In many Asian countries, in Europe and USA, Mandarin has emerged as the new must-have language.
An estimated 30 million people are already studying Mandarin worldwide, and China very ambitious goal is to have 100 million foreigners studying Mandarin by end 2010. The Chinese government now actively supports the growing interest worldwide in learning Chinese as a foreign or second language through a program- Hanban- and a worldwide network of ‘Confucius Institutes’.

Spanish has grown to be roughly the same size as English in terms of native-speakers, and may overtake it. The language is growing in economic importance in both Latin America and the United States, challenging English in some parts of the USA. Brazil, one of the most important new economies outside India and China, passed a law in July 2005 requiring all secondary schools in the country to offer Spanish courses, allowing students to choose it as an alternative to English..

Arabic is growing, demographically, faster than any other world language. The generation of Arabic speakers now growing up will determine its future as a world language. Spoken Arabic is likely to acquire a more transnational standard form as Al Jazeera and similar international agencies provide a model equivalent to ‘BBC English’.

http://www.myngle.com/blog/2007/09/29/the-market-for-foreign-language-learning

Your thoughts?
Guest   Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:31 am GMT
I was wondering why Russian wasn't listed. It met the economic criteria, but it must be lacking in the demographic and cultural areas.

It probably didn't mention Hindi because English is widely used in India.
Guest   Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:32 am GMT
Chinese had 40 million leanrers by the end of 2007,but i dont think it will be 100 million by end 2010(can't be that fast)
Guest   Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:49 am GMT
Why don't you talk about French? French is the most important.
Guest   Sat Mar 01, 2008 4:12 am GMT
Russian language is very important in CIS, Europe (especially eastern) and Northern Asia (many people in Mongolia, Northern China, both Koreas and Japan). It is in the economic interests of all countries to have Russian speakers, as Russia is undeniably important in the world economy.
mac   Sat Mar 01, 2008 7:49 am GMT
So by this article, Chinese, Spanish and Arabic will be the next big ones, with Chinese and Spanish being the most likely to pose competition for English. Interesting view. I happen to agree with much of it.

I think Russian is important, but I don't see it becoming ''popular'' as a foreign lanugage, as least in the near future.

As far as German and Japanese; they will still be important, but mainly in their immediate regions. Same for French (including Africa), but I think its international standing will depend on whether it remains the 2nd most popular language to study or if that changes. One problem I see with French is that it isn't much competition for English now and probably never will be. And to remain No.2 you have to be competitive with No.1.
Guest   Sat Mar 01, 2008 8:00 am GMT
English and French will remain the only 2 global languages and the most desirable to study. Even Chinese, Hispanics, and Arabs are so awrae of this and they give their nod as they acknowledge it.

Russian comes to a close third because it's spoken natively in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan and near native in other ex-soviet republics. In Western Hemisphere it's spoken in Cuba.

Russian is the 2nd most important language in science and US astonauts are required to be proficient in Russian not to mention the political and economic status of Russia.
Guest   Sat Mar 01, 2008 8:09 am GMT
Just access this link: http://www.myngle.com/blog/ and ypu can come out with a conclusion on the ratio of French teachers to the number of students who study it.

Based on the graph, French remains the 2nd most studied and the number who studies it is almost twice than that of Spanish.
Xie   Sat Mar 01, 2008 8:36 am GMT
Is it all that important, or is it all that influential? I can just see the rest of the UN languages, along with the non-UN regional ones, will be theoretically more popular than they were. I'd say that, in the years after WWII and before JUST now, English had been the sole important language for all sorts of int'l comm. (see examples by Farber in 1990, which still holds somewhat today)

I don't see the fall of the USSR as directly dealing a blow to Russian. Instead, I see it the beginning of the RISE of languages owing to MORE significant factors. What did we see since 1990? German unification. CIS. Internet (yes, so is English). China's entry into WTO (and establishing relations with Korea). The world now isn't unilateral. It would have been impossible to learn anything like Japanese or Russian (two neighbours of Chinese) if I had been born 20 years earlier in the same country. Ranking isn't all that important - all I know is all those int'l org's would tell which are more important in the int'l summits, namely English and French.

Since this question is often more like a political analysis about choice for the absolute beginner, I'd say, no matter you are European or American or Chinese, you just can't be wrong to choose at least one or two from this list, as long as they aren't too remote from each other (like Mandarin plus Spanish for the European-speaking learner, which are hardly complementary).
huesped   Sat Mar 01, 2008 11:49 am GMT
<< English and French will remain the only 2 global languages and the most desirable to study >>

Ok. Why? I know French is the 2nd most popular now. But WHY will it reamain so? mac up above pointed out that it offers little in the way of competition to English, and I agree. So how do you know it will hang in there at no.2?
Xie   Sat Mar 01, 2008 4:37 pm GMT
huesped:

So, I'd say there are loads of number 2's now. French just happens to be officially ranked second, but as I see it, yes, it serves as a number 2, but it has loads of competitors elsewhere which, though, won't be ousting it from the UN anyway. Every young Chinese learns just English, no matter how badly. In an important event in the Great Hall of the People, whenever foreign journalists are present, only Mandarin (*even questions raised by those who know it as a foreigner) and English are used. NO people would bother to learn another second language or dare to use one for such occasions. This gold standard won't be challenged by anything anytime soon, and both natives and non-natives still have to learn tongues of each other to finish deals better.